Israel Now Controls Roughly 60% of Gaza as the 'Yellow Line' Pushes West

The ceasefire architecture in Gaza has effectively broken down. According to UN reporting and on-the-ground assessments, Israeli forces now control approximately 60% of the Gaza Strip, having pushed further west and expanded the so-called "yellow line" — the zone east of which Israel exercises operational control — by 37 kilometres.

The numbers

Between 7 October 2023 and 15 April 2026, the Gaza Ministry of Health reports 72,344 Palestinians killed and 172,242 injured. Roughly 1.8 million people — close to the entire population of the territory — are displaced and living in IDP camps or improvised shelter. Public-health risks are rising as water, sanitation and medical infrastructure remain at a fraction of pre-war capacity.

The ceasefire that isn't

Under the agreement reached at the start of 2026, Israel was supposed to withdraw its troops from Gaza by the end of Phase 1. It has refused, despite the truce nominally entering Phase 2. Israeli officials cite security concerns and the unresolved status of remaining hostages and combatants; UN officials and humanitarian groups argue the continued military presence is itself driving civilian casualties and obstructing aid.

The result is a Phase 2 in which the ceasefire is increasingly fragile. Israeli strikes continue, and armed activities by Hamas and other Palestinian factions continue alongside them. The international community's framing — that the war is winding down — has moved further out of step with the operational reality.

The regional context

Gaza is no longer the only Israeli front. Since the latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah broke out on 2 March 2026, more than 2,500 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced. Satellite imagery shows previously damaged areas in southern Lebanon now being completely levelled — what observers describe as the Gaza playbook applied to Lebanese towns.

The Iran-Israel conflict and the Strait of Hormuz crisis sit on top of the Gaza and Lebanon files, complicating any single negotiating track. The US has tried to push parallel diplomacy on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran simultaneously, with limited results.

What might break the cycle

Three potential trajectories. First, a comprehensive regional deal that pairs an Iran agreement with Gaza and Lebanon arrangements — the maximalist option that Trump's team has talked up but not delivered. Second, a unilateral Israeli withdrawal triggered by domestic political pressure, accelerating the existing ceasefire's Phase 2 obligations. Third, more of the same: an indefinite low-intensity war with shifting front lines and worsening humanitarian conditions.

The third path is the current one. Whether the first or second can replace it before the end of 2026 is the open question.